Last week, Fannie Mae released their Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). Though the survey showed 77% of respondents believe it’s a “good time to sell,” it also confirms what many are sensing: an increasing number of Americans believe it’s a “bad time to buy” a home.
However, when you look at the data it is simply untrue that it is a bad time to buy. We here at Corken + Company want to make sure we provide you with real data to inform your home buying decisions!
Let’s look closely at the market conditions that impact home affordability.
A mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate on the loan used to purchase it. Lately, monthly mortgage payments have gone up for buyers for two key reasons:
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Mortgage rates have increased from 2.65% this past January to 2.9%.
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Home prices have increased by 15.4% over the last 12 months.
Based on these rising factors, a home may be less affordable today, but it doesn’t mean it’s not affordable.
It’s true that monthly mortgage payments are greater than they were last year, but they’re not unaffordable when compared to the last 30 years. While payments have increased dramatically during that several-decade span, if we adjust for inflation, today’s mortgage payments are 10.7% lower than they were in 1990.
What does that mean for you? While you may not get the homebuying deal someone you know got last year, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t still consider buying.
Here are your alternatives to buying and the trade-offs you’ll have with each.
Alternative 1: I’ll rent instead.
Some may consider renting as the better option. However, the monthly cost of renting a home is skyrocketing. According to the July National Rent Report from Apartment List:
“…So far in 2021, rental prices have grown a staggering 9.2%. To put that in context, in previous years growth from January to June is usually just 2 to 3%. After this month’s spike, rents have been pushed well above our expectations of where they would have been had the pandemic not disrupted the market.”
If you continue to rent, chances are your rent will keep increasing at a fast pace. That means you could end up spending significantly more of your income on your rental as time goes on, which could make it even harder to save for a home.
This is also a good sign for those thinking that they may want to buy a home as an investment property. Real estate continues to be a sound & appreciating investment.
Alternative 2: I’ll wait it out.
Others may consider waiting for another year and hoping that purchasing a home will be less expensive then. Let’s look at that possibility.
We’ve already established that a monthly mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate. A lower monthly payment would require one of those two elements to decrease over the next year. However, experts are forecasting the exact opposite:
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects mortgage rates will be at 4.2% by the end of next year.
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The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES), a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, calls for home prices to increase by 5.12% in 2022.
By waiting until next year, you’d potentially pay more for the home, need a larger down payment, pay a higher mortgage rate, and pay an additional $3,696 each year over the life of the mortgage. If you are thinking it may be time to buy a home, Corken + Company can help you find a great fit for you and your family!
